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Bitcoin Only Needs To Grab About 17% Of Global Store-Of-Value Market To Hit $1 million
In a new market commentary shared Tuesday, Hougan noted that many investors underestimate Bitcoin’s potential by ignoring the rapid growth of the global store-of-value market. He explained that valuing Bitcoin requires assessing the market’s size and estimating the portion the OG crypto could realistically capture.
Hougan pointed out that the global store-of-value market is currently just under $38 trillion, with roughly $36 trillion in gold and about $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. This means Bitcoin makes up just under 4% of the market, and would need to capture over 50% to hit $1 million per coin.
While many commentators see that price as unrealistic, Hougan emphasized that a common mistake is overlooking how much the store-of-value market has grown over time, which greatly affects Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Hougan noted that when the first gold ETF launched in the U.S. in 2004, the gold market was valued at around $2.5 trillion. Since then, it has expanded to nearly $40 trillion, growing at an annualized rate of about 13%. He attributed this surge to factors like rising government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and accommodative monetary policies.



 “If this growth rate continues, the global ‘store of value’ market will be [around] $121 trillion in 10 years,” the crypto asset manager executive postulated. “At that level, Bitcoin only needs to take 17% of the market to be worth $1 million a coin.”
Hougan believes that with growing institutional adoption, the rise of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and decreasing volatility, BTC is well-positioned to achieve strong gains over time.
Too Conservative?
Hougan acknowledged that risks remain, noting that the store-of-value market might not grow as rapidly as it has over the past 20 years, and Bitcoin could struggle to capture more market share.
Yet, he added that his projections might actually be too conservative if rising government debt and concerns over fiat currency debasement boost demand for alternative store-of-value assets.
“As I see it, the base case—that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and Bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has—leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” Hougan wrote.
Hougan’s firm previously forecasted that Bitcoin could break the typical four-year cycle and set a fresh lifetime high in 2026. Despite a 5.8% rebound over the past two weeks, Bitcoin is still down more than 45% from its October all-time high of $126,080, recently trading around $69,185.
