Bitcoin’s price bottom has been a key topic of discussion among cryptocurrency market participants this month, as the leading cryptocurrency continues its downtrend following a 1.58% drop in total market cap. Market players have since shared multiple predictions for Bitcoin’s bottom—the lowest price point that Bitcoin could reach during a significant price decline.
According to research from NYDIG, Bitcoin is primed to hit new lows in the near term. Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle framework suggests the asset could continue downward, and if the 2018 and 2022 market patterns are repeated, a cycle low is expected near $38,000 and $39,000 around early October.
Bitcoin has fallen by 54.3% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 and has continued to decline for 268 days, hitting a low of $57,700. NYDIG associates Bitcoin’s current price dip with an incomplete cycle retest fueled by supply concerns rather than risk-based sentiments.
According to the research, on-chain metrics and buyer dynamics indicate that Bitcoin’s 54.3% price drop is not deep enough to trigger full capitulation or attract buyers. Key investors appear to be awaiting deeper capitulation and confirmation of ETF flows before entering the market.
Meanwhile, data from Alphractal points to the Short-term holder and long-term holder signal (STH/LTH) as a historically accurate signal that could identify Bitcoin’s price bottom.



 Based on the realized price, the on-chain signal outlines key instances where a bear market ends and when a bull market begins.
Current data indicate a continuation of the bear market and further suggest the trend could persist for some time before confirmation of a bull market.
During the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at a price of $63,365. Although a mild hourly price jump has been recorded, data fromCoinMarketCapshow 1.7% and 1.46% drops over the last 7 days and 24 hours, respectively.
