On-chain indicators suggest we may be entering the final phase of the Bitcoin bear market. Popular crypto analyst Darkfost recently tweeted in detail about this development. He stated that a downward crossover of Short Term Holders (STH) and Long Term Holders (LTH) was witnessed on a cost basis. A reliable 3-day confirmation of this trend occurred, Darkfost reported.
“…., The end-of-bear-market signal has just flashed. This signal is defined by the downward crossover of the STH/LTH cost basis (with a 3-day confirmation window to validate the signal)…..”
Based on the analyst’s take, this flash signals the approaching end of the bear market that has persisted for nine months. He also attached the following graph comparing LTH and STH costs:
Based on the graph, the STH cost basis has plummeted from $112,500 to $69,000, allowing new buyers to lower the average buying price of the cryptocurrency. The STH cost kept dropping till it eventually overlapped with the LTH cost basis, and it could even dip below the latter in the coming months.
The recent overlap in the cost bases of LTHs and STH shows that the terminal phase of the creeping bear market is here. However, there is no indication that it is over right now. It is only the beginning of the end, as now conditions are ripe for a viable Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy.



 The Future
As the bear market nears its terminal phase, Bitcoin is likely to post a bottom in the near future and then stick to it. While some proponents believe that a dip below the current low of around $58.5k is impossible, others disagree and argue that further pain is necessary before the market can clearly call a bottom.
Regarding STH and LTH cost levels, they are likely to diverge slightly for the time being, but a subsequent upward crossover would confirm the bull market’s onset. However, there is no timeframe for this development as it could take months or even more than a year to confirm this crossover.
For now, the signal underscores Bitcoin’s maturation without fully breaking its four-year cycle rhythms. Some critics believe that the 4-year cycle is dead and that we are entering uncharted territory. However, at least for BTC, the cyclical investor behavior is enduring and appears to hold for now.
