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The projection has reignited discussion among investors about whether Bitcoin is currently presenting a major buying opportunity or whether the once-popular S2F model has lost its predictive power.
Is Now the Perfect Time to Buy Bitcoin?
PlanB’s new S2F model measures Bitcoin’s scarcity by comparing the current total supply, or stock, with the yearly amount of newly mined coins, known as the flow. Notably, the model focuses on Bitcoin’s halvings—events that cut the issuance of new BTC in half every four years. Following each halving, the supply of new BTC is cut in half, which, according to PlanB, naturally exerts upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
His captioned chart shows the dotted S2F line spiking after 2024, suggesting a target range of approximately $500,000.
PlanB’s latest outlook highlights three main points. First, historical accuracy: he points to his previous successes, noting that he started purchasing BTC at $400 in 2015 and that his 2019 model correctly projected growth from below $4,000 to $55,000. Second, current undervaluation: the chart’s blue and green dots, representing the RSI indicator, indicate the market isn’t overheated, and from the model’s perspective, Bitcoin’s current price of $67,000 is just the start of the path toward this cycle’s average. Finally, he emphasizes that there are no guarantees; the S2F model has often been criticized for ignoring demand-side factors and focusing solely on supply.



 In summary, PlanB views the current moment as a prime buying opportunity. He considers Bitcoin significantly undervalued but cautions that investors should be mindful of its high volatility. The journey toward a potential $500,000 BTC pricetag could involve sharp declines, as seen in past market cycles.
The price of Bitcoin has held steady at $67K despite Middle East tensions rattling markets. The world’s largest crypto is trading at roughly $67,773 as of press time, down a paltry 0.4% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
