Bitcoin is rapidly shedding its image as independent “digital gold†and increasingly behaving like a high-risk stock market proxy, according to Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone in a new analysis.
McGlone argues that Bitcoin's growing sensitivity to U.S. equity moves could expose it to a fresh wave of selling. With tighter Federal Reserve policy adding pressure, the strategist believes BTC could drop painfully to $10,000.
3 Reasons Why Bitcoin Could Crash to $10K: McGlone
A familiar market voice has returned with a familiar — and highly controversial — Bitcoin call.
This time, McGlone pointed to Bitcoin's strong correlation with the S&P 500 as one of the biggest concerns. Over the past five years, Bitcoin's performance has broadly tracked the benchmark index, despite experiencing nearly three times the volatility. From a portfolio and risk-management perspective, McGlone argues that such a combination makes Bitcoin a poor proposition if it continues to deliver stock-like returns while carrying significantly greater risk.Â
According to McGlone, Bitcoin has effectively become the “beta†of the broader cryptocurrency market, with millions of other digital assets competing for the same pool of investor capital. He warns that this close connection to the wider speculative market could magnify Bitcoin's downside if investors begin reducing their exposure to riskier crypto assets.



 
McGlone noted that U.S. equities appear stretched relative to their long-term trend. In particular, he highlights the S&P 500's distance from its 200-week moving average as a sign that stocks could face a meaningful correction. Because Bitcoin has become increasingly tied to equity-market movements, a sustained decline in stocks could have an outsized impact on BTC.Â
The U.S. Federal Reserve is another potential source of pressure for Bitcoin. McGlone points to fed funds futures indicating expectations for roughly 70 basis points of rate hikes over the next year, a shift that could create a tougher environment for risk assets. If the Fed resumes tightening, higher rates could further weigh on Bitcoin and other speculative investments.
The strategist further shared a chart identifying Bitcoin's recent rebound toward the $80,000 resistance area as another warning sign. Rather than viewing the recovery as confirmation of a renewed bull market, McGlone suggests that the move could represent a temporary bounce before another leg lower.Â
His most bearish scenario places Bitcoin on a path toward its long-standing pivot around $10,000. McGlone is convinced that a persistent 20% decline in the S&P 500 could potentially trigger a much deeper Bitcoin sell-off, based on historical relationships between the cryptocurrency and broader risk assets.Â
With Bitcoin changing hands around $77,300 on Sunday, the premier crypto's price would need to plummet roughly 87% to reach $10,000, according to CoinGecko. At that price, BTC's market capitalization would fall to approximately $200 billion, compared with its current valuation of around $1.55 trillion. Since hitting an all-time high of $126,080 in October, Bitcoin has plunged roughly 38.6%.
