  
 
 
Analysts are converging on a data-driven framework to explain when Bitcoin is most likely to form a definitive market bottom, pushing back against claims that the worst is already over.
Chain analyst and Alphractal CEO João Wedson insists a true Bitcoin bottom only materializes after two distinct phases unfold across holder cohorts.
The first condition has already been met. Short-term holders are currently underwater, meaning many recent buyers are holding coins at a loss. This phase typically signals growing stress and forced selling among weaker hands.
However, Wedson argues that the real bottom forms only when long-term holders also begin to incur losses, and that has not yet occurred. Historically, this marks the point of maximum capitulation, when even conviction-driven investors feel pressure.
Other analysts acknowledge that Bitcoin may already be entering a “bottom discovery phase.” Recent data show supply in profit slipping to a historical low, with only 11.1 million BTC currently profitable, down from 19.8 million at last year’s peak.



 Approximately 8.7 million coins were bought at prices above current levels, resulting in the sharpest profit compression Bitcoin has seen. In past cycles, this zone has often preceded long consolidation periods marked by elevated fear and patience-testing conditions.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin recently fell to the low $ 72,000s as U.S. political uncertainty over government funding triggered a broad risk-off move across equities, gold, and crypto. While markets rebounded after the bill passed, on-chain data show whales have sold over 50,000 BTC in the past two weeks, even as retail has aggressively accumulated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 4.68% over the past 24 hours to $68,527, extending its weekly decline to more than 19%. ETF outflows remain a headwind, with analysts closely watching the 200-week EMA near $65,400. Whether institutional flows stabilize determines if current conditions mark a bottom in formation or a prelude to deeper downside.
