In a significant reversal of a previous estimation, BitMEX co-founder and the CEO of Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, has revised his 2026 BTC target from $500k to $125k. He made this announcement during a recent interview with a crypto journalist. Hayes had famously predicted that the premier cryptocurrency would reach as high as half a million dollars in the near future, but he has now backed down, citing liquidity concerns.
According to Hayes, the fundamental driver of Bitcoin’s price is liquidity, and without more liquidity entering the market, the digital currency is likely to remain stagnant or underperform. He disagreed with the popular belief that technological advancements drive prices up.
“What does Bitcoin need to go higher? More money printing,” said Hayes during this interview. Bitcoin is currently trading right around $78k at press time, after failing to hold the crucial $80k level. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is feeling uneasy above key resistance, let alone move to Hayes’ revised target of $125k.
Hayes has a history of making bold claims, but many of them haven’t come true. Hayes, known for crypto advocacy, is now directly tying Bitcoin’s price increase to global liquidity, even though the latter has been rising sharply over the last couple of years, yet the digital currency’s performance remains subpar at best.
Global Liquidity and Bitcoin Correlation
Here is the price relationship of global M2 liquidity and Bitcoin’s price index for the last 10 years:



 
The graph clearly shows a strong correlation between BTC’s price index and global liquidity. The digital currency experienced massive growth around the time global liquidity surged in 2021 during the lockdown. Recently, liquidity has started to creep upwards, but the price has remained stagnant, resulting in weaker confidence in the digital currency.
Hayes also commented on the macroeconomy, attributing the Q1 stock market crash to “AI panic,” as he believes aggressive money printing is failing to counter deflationary forces. He believes that rapid advancements in AI are suppressing wage growth and demand in many areas.
Twitterati Respond
The crypto community was generally critical of how crypto executives like Hayes make bold predictions and then smartly revise their targets, citing liquidity concerns.
One user tweeted:
Another quipped:
Other executives, such as Binance’s CZ, have come under criticism for engaging in FOMO-driven behavior to influence cryptocurrency prices.
