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According to CryptoQuant, current market conditions suggest Bitcoin is transitioning from deep undervaluation toward equilibrium. This phase has historically coincided with accumulation and healthier price discovery.
Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross supports this assessment, smoothed with a 100-day moving average. NVT measures market value relative to on-chain transaction activity and is often compared to a price-to-earnings ratio for Bitcoin. When the short-term NVT falls well below its long-term trend, it signals that the price is lagging behind network utility.
In this cycle, the indicator reached a historically depressed level near -0.58, reflecting structural undervaluation that isn’t just bearish.
What stands out now is the recovery from that extreme. The NVT Golden Cross has risen from roughly minus 0.58 to around minus 0.32, suggesting the price is beginning to realign with transaction-driven fundamentals.



 Even so, the indicator is in negative territory, suggesting Bitcoin is still priced conservatively relative to the economic activity it processes.
CryptoQuant notes that this transition from undervaluation toward equilibrium has historically marked periods of selective capital rather than broad risk-off.
This technical outlook is unfolding alongside ongoing regulatory and custody challenges. Taiwan recently seized 210 Bitcoin as part of criminal investigations.
At the same time, concerns are emerging about the risks of quantum computing, with estimates suggesting that up to 6.7 million BTC could be exposed if public-key vulnerabilities are not addressed by 2028.
Analysts see a potential path to $125,000 if the $108,000 level holds, while near-term price action is focused on the $86,000-$90,000 zone.
That said, U.S. CPI data and Bitcoin ETF flows are expected to influence direction, with close attention also on an OG whale holding a $693 million long position, whose next move could signal institutional conviction.
