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The Collapse of Bitcoin’s 20-Year Quantum Timeline
According to a report by Youssef El Maddarsi, chief business officer at Naoris Protocol, quantum computing poses an existential risk for Bitcoin. Maddarsi poked holes in the claim that Bitcoin has up to four decades to brace for quantum threats, aclaimmade by Adam Back.
He warned that a wave of innovation by technology giants such as Google and IBM could raise concerns within Bitcoin’s ecosystem. Specifically, he pointed to IBM’s prediction that early fault-tolerant systems could be achieved by 2029, raising the stakes for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
His theory also hinged on Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin’s statement that quantum computers can crack elliptic-curve cryptography before 2029. Maddarsi noted that Ethereum and Solana have taken concrete steps to remain ahead of the curve before quantum threats become a reality.
Already, Deloitte has sounded dire warnings that 4 million BTC, representing 25% of the asset’s supply, are at risk of quantum attacks.



 Not A Walk In The Park
Maddarsi further noted that the claim that Bitcoin can always be upgraded is flawed, citing the complexity of implementing simple network changes. The expert noted that the quantum upgrades will entail a “fundamental overhaul of the protocol’s signature scheme.”
Per Maddarsi, the upgrade could require 75 days of downtime, potentially extending to 300 days of reduced network activity. Furthermore, the expert added that Bitcoin’s governance culture also poses significant bottlenecks due to its inherent resistance to change.
“Bitcoin cannot rely on a leisurely multi-decade upgrade path,” said Maddarsi.
Meanwhile, Christopher Wood, global head of equity at Jefferies, soldhis entire Bitcoin allocation due to concerns about quantum computing. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya predicted a 5-year window for quantum computing to crack Bitcoin, forcing a terse response from Adam Back.
Despite the claim, Saylor’s founder, Michael Saylor, argued that quantum computing will make Bitcoin stronger and scarcer.
