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The forecast comes as other pundits are divided on whether Bitcoin will stray from its historical pattern or follow the historic halving cycle and peak in the coming months.
Why Bitcoin Will Defy Its 4-Year Bull/Bear Market Cycle
Bitcoin has traditionally followed a pattern of three strong years followed by a brutal retreat, suggesting 2026 should be bearish. With the price of BTC down over 31% from its Oct. 6 all-time high of just above $126,000 and most altcoins faring much worse, that’s a view widely shared by the majority of market analysts.
Bitwise, however, noted that the long-watched four-year halving cycle is dead for several reasons, including the diminishing strength of previous cycle indicators, expectations for lowering interest rates in 2026, a reduction in leverage-driven crashes following historic liquidations in October, and an improving regulatory environment.
“In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote in a recent blog post.



 Most notably, Hougan believes that accelerating institutional adoption in 2026 following the pro-crypto regulatory shift under the Donald Trump administration will help Bitcoin find new highs next year instead of a classic post-halving bear market.
“We expect the combination of these factors will push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, relegating the four-year cycle to history’s dustbin,” Hougan postulated.
Bitcoin More Likely To See “Strong Returns”
Notably, Bitcoin has dropped by over 17% over the past year despite its run to new record highs in 2025. On the contrary, stock indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up 14.5% and 12%, respectively, over the same time frame.
Bitwise’s Hougan expects the top crypto’s correlation with equities to fall further in 2026 owing to regulatory progress and institutional inflows. He also predicted that Bitcoin, infamous for its high volatility, will be less volatile than the leading chipmaker stock, Nvidia, next year.
Putting those predictions together with the end of the four-year cycle gives investors the “trifecta” of “strong returns, less volatility, and lower correlations,” in Hougan’s opinion. If these conditions play out, he expects tens of billions of dollars in fresh institutional capital to enter the market.
