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Weiss Crypto Research maintains that Bitcoin’s trajectory is closely tied to U.S. Treasury bill issuance cycles. In early 2025, expansion in T-bill supply paused, contributing to tighter liquidity conditions and crypto weakness later in the year.
Issuance resumed around July 2025, and given the typical eight-month lag between liquidity expansion and risk assets’ response, February 2026 is the window when renewed issuance should begin to influence price action. A sustained move above $71,000 would align Bitcoin with those macro indicators, suggesting that liquidity catalysts could translate into higher prices.
However, on-chain data reveals a fundamental challenge. For the first time this cycle, Bitcoin is trading sustainably below its adjusted realized price, which excludes coins that have been dormant for more than 7 years and are therefore considered effectively lost. After this adjustment, the aggregate holder cost basis stands near $72,700. Bitcoin has traded below that threshold for nearly a month.
Historically, sustained breaks below this level have coincided with bear markets lasting 6 to 12 months. Reclaiming it would return a significant share of holders to profit, reducing sell pressure and strengthening market structure.



 Counterbalancing the caution, Coin Days Destroyed metrics show minimal movement among long-term holders, even when smoothed with a 90-day average. The reluctance of older coins to move suggests limited distribution from early participants.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $70,568.29, down 3.75% over the past 24 hours following a derivatives-driven squeeze. Holding above $65,000 could open a retest of $68,000, but only a decisive push beyond $71,000 would confirm a structural turn higher.
