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Arthur Hayes Forecasts Bitcoin Drop Amid Iran Conflict
In a recent interview, Hayes said that if the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran takes a long time to resolve, there will likely be a sell-off across risk assets. He added that in such a situation, BTC could go below $60,000, and the market will be hit by another cascade of liquidations.
“The longer that this carries on, there could be a massive sell-off in equities, and Bitcoin might fall a bit lower, might break 60,000… If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.
He also added that he was waiting on the US Federal Reserve to print money to support its war with Iran. If this happens, it will negatively affect the USD, prompting a shift from fiat currency to alternative assets such as Bitcoin. This would then drive a price recovery.
Hayes also added that the bottom was not yet in and that the market should expect further sell-offs in equity markets. Such a drop would spill over to the crypto market, with Hayes stating that Bitcoin has not decoupled and was trading like a high-beta tech stock. However, he remains bullish about the long-term outlook.



 “I see that as a huge opportunity. I don’t think there are going to be many more years where you can buy sub 100,000 Bitcoin,” he said.
It is not the first time Hayes has been bullish on crypto because of the war in Iran. As ZyCrypto reported, he expects the Fed to ease the monetary policy soon because of the war.
Glassnode Says Bitcoin is Stabilizing
Despite Hayes’ bearish outlook, a recent Glassnode report noted that Bitcoin’s fundamentals were strengthening and that a price rally may commence. The report noted that ETFs are recording inflows, signaling a return of institutional demand.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s open interest is rising again, a sign of higher conviction among traders. Meanwhile, a surge in the net unrealized profit/loss also shows that traders are beginning to see profits after a rough start in early Q1 2026.
