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Speaking during Santiment’s latest “This Week in Crypto” episode, the analysts pointed out weakening on-chain activity, shifting sentiment, and unresolved retail behavior.
Bitcoin is down nearly 5% for the week, while Ethereum has fallen almost 9%, reflecting broader market softness following a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news reaction to the latest CPI report.
Quinlivan noted that retail participation is higher than ideal at this stage of the cycle, with repeated rebounds toward $90,000 and bursts of optimistic commentary, preventing the level of fear and impatience typically associated with a durable bottom.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s transaction volume has continued to slide since its November spike, while daily active addresses and circulation have dropped to some of their lowest levels of the past quarter.



 However, network growth is stable, indicating steady wallet creation despite slowing activity. The 30-day MVRV is near-neutral, and the 365-day MVRV is negative, a pattern historically associated with longer-term accumulation phases.
Moving on, Balashevich emphasized that healthier recoveries tend to occur when shorts dominate, fueling sharp rebounds. As it stands, whale activity has cooled to fewer large transfers overall, though a brief spike in $1 million-plus transactions earlier this month suggests selective engagement by large players.
Perhaps most concerning is the recent rise in Bitcoin supply on exchanges. Since December 9, roughly 17,700 BTC have been returned to exchanges, raising the total exchange supply from 6.03% to 6.12%.
Historically, similar increases have often coincided with local tops or deeper pullbacks, though exceptions do exist.
Balashevich ultimately argued that a retest of the $74,000 area could trigger the kind of broad-based panic needed to reset sentiment. Until then, Bitcoin’s path may involve a brief push higher, followed by one more corrective leg before a more convincing recovery kicks off.
