  
 
 
Grayscale Research has pushed back firmly against growing fears of a deep, multi-year crypto downturn, arguing in a new report that Bitcoin is poised to break its all-time high in 2026.
The firm challenged the long-standing belief that BTC must follow a strict four-year cycle tied to halving, arguing that the model no longer reflects the current market structure.
“Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year,” Grayscale market watchers wrote.
Their comments arrive during one of Bitcoin’s most turbulent stretches in recent months, with the asset falling 32% from its peak through most of November.
Grayscale emphasized that sharp drawdowns are standard within bull markets, noting that dips of 25% or more often occur without derailing long-term upside.



 The firm also argued this cycle lacks the parabolic, retail-driven mania that preceded previous market tops. Instead, institutional capital concentrated in ETFs and corporate treasuries is shaping a more stable, but still bullish, phase for Bitcoin.
Macro conditions offer further support. With possible U.S. rate cuts ahead and bipartisan progress on crypto legislation, Grayscale believes the environment is more constructive than headlines suggest.
Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, shares that view. He pointed to a widening gap between price action and on-chain fundamentals, writing that “Crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals… have moved forward.”
BitMine has been heavily accumulating, buying 7,080 ETH on Monday and 16,693 ETH on Saturday, following major institutional inflows last week. Lee told CNBC he now expects Bitcoin to set a fresh all-time high by the end of January.
