It’s a packed day of MLB playoff action! Here’s a couple props I like today.

Season Record: 20-19-2, -.06 Units

Phillies at Dodgers

Aaron Nola Over 2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-146 DraftKings)

The betting markets really assume that we see very little of Aaron Nola tonight. His Outs Recorded prop is at 8.5, though tilted to the over at -141. His Hits Allowed prop centers around 3, juiced to -148 Over. I get it. The Phillies trail 2-0 in the series and obviously have to win this one. They have Ranger Suarez to go in a piggyback role if Nola has the slightest of struggles. And perhaps most importantly, Nola has not pitched well this year, with a 6.01 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. His ERA estimators paint a rosier picture as he had a 4.25 xERA and 3.81 SIERA.

Nola missed about half the season with injuries, but his strikeout numbers have remained pretty consistent throughout. He has a 24% K% and 11.2% SwStr% on the year, virtually identical to what he did in 2024 when he made every start and had a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. What’s just gone is any kind of consistency. In two of his last four regular season starts, he yielded just one earned run in 14 combined innings, with 16 K’s. In the other two he gave up 10 earned runs in 11.1 IP and struck out 9.

I know this is a leap of faith here that we get Ace Nola, or even Serviceable Nola. But it’s a really low K prop, so not sure we even need his best version. We can win this if he simply gets through 2 innings.

Brewers at Cubs

Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-141 DraftKings)

Well I guess I have a theme today. The market again assumes the starter on a team with their whole season on the line will get yanked at the slightest sign of trouble. And again, that’s a safe assumption. I am just willing to bet that the pitcher, in this case Taillon, can hang in long enough to surpass a meager K prop.

Taillon and Nola are not similar, save for their age and the plight of their teams. Taillon profiles as a solid mid rotation starter but he’s provided much more than that for the Cubs, with a 3.45 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 51 starts and 295 innings over the last 2 seasons. 

He just does not get many whiffs as he has an 8.8% SwStr% and 18.7% K%. This is a wager more on his overall quality as he may need to get through the 4th inning to get to 3 strikeouts here. I say he does it. He pitched in the deciding Game 3 vs. the Padres last Thursday, and lasted 4 innings. He faced 14 batters and struck out 4 of them, while giving up just 2 hits and no walks or runs. He’s the Cubs best starter right now. I will roll with his K prop here.