With only the four best teams in the NBA still playing, distractions are minimal with no more than one game on the schedule each day.
That means I don’t have to split my focus when creating my “Best NBA Postseason Bets” list for Thursday, May 22.
Oklahoma City took care of business against the visiting Timberwolves in Game 1. Should you bet on them to do so again in Game 2? Let’s break it down (odds via FanDuel):
Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-310), o/u 214
Oklahoma City’s depth came up big, and the Thunder absolutely deserved to win Game 1 in decisive fashion. But we didn’t see Minnesota’s “A” game—blame it on too much rest, stars being out of alignment, whatever.
Anthony Edwards had an off night with a tweaked ankle, Julius Randle disappeared in the second half, and Rudy Gobert was a non-factor. I doubt we see all three mail it in again.
I’d still lean toward picking the Thunder to win outright (though there’s no value in the moneyline); the talent and depth on that roster is legit. But the T-Wolves will keep it closer this time around.
Timberwolves +7.5
Julius Randle, OVER 19.5 points at -106
Yes, OKC has a great defense, but it was “great” in Game 1 when Randle scored 28. He faded in the second half, but that’s not enough to convince me a guy who’s scored 20-plus points in five straight games—and nine of his last 10—won’t hit 20 again.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OVER 31.5 points at -122
In four regular-season games vs. Minnesota, he scored 39, 37, 24 and 40 points. Game 1 was just the third time in his last 10 games he shot under 40% from the field. In the other two, he scored 18 and 31 points.
Fans should expect more of the second-half version of SGA for all of Game 2. That makes the OVER an easy call.
Chet Holmgren, UNDER 1.5 made 3-pointers at -182
He was on fire from deep in the first three games of the first round (3-of-4, 3-of-8, 5-of-10). Since then, he’s made two 3-pointers in a game just twice—Game 2 and Game 6 vs. Denver. Letting him find his rhythm from beyond the arc is not a priority.
He may hit one in this game, but not two. That said, at -182, there’s not much value in this market. Consider pairing it in a same-game parlay.
Alex Caruso, OVER 7.5 points at -114
Caruso comes off the bench, and betting on bench production is always a little tricky. But he’s scored at least nine points in each of his last five games and is averaging 9.3 points per game in the postseason. As long as he sees 20-plus minutes, he should go OVER.
