May 4, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley (4) goes for a rebound against Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) during the second half in game one of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images All four NBA second-round playoff series saw the lower seed wrestle away home-court advantage after two road games.
The question then became: How many of the eight remaining title contenders—right then and there—would say, “We’ll take a split,” in Games 3 and 4 of the best-of-seven series?
Of course, nobody would ever say that. But you know some were thinking it.
In fact, more than most ratings-crazed broadcasters would lead you to believe.
Let’s play the mind game …
Pacers vs. Cavaliers
Cavaliers: Here’s the most overused term at playoff time: must-win. Just because you’re down 2-0 doesn’t mean you’re in a must-win. And just because you’re tied or even up 2-0 doesn’t mean you aren’t.
The Cavaliers, in a 2-0 hole, didn’t have to win Game 3. In fact, you might have noticed far less confidence emanating from the home team’s bench. That’s because Cleveland didn’t really need it.
The Cavs are the better team. They know it. They’ve just been a little banged up. The longer the series, the better for them.
So, splitting games in Indiana would be just fine. Get to Game 5, then be a heavy favorite in each remaining game. But they at least needed to split Games 3 and 4 first—and now they’ve done that.
Pacers: Obviously, they’d now love a split at home. But that’s really no different than their attitude entering Game 3.
They just needed to avoid throwing back their entire advantage by getting swept in Nap Town. They can still avoid that by winning Game 4. A must-win? No. Let’s label it: Really, Really Gotta Have It (RRGHI).
Knicks vs. Celtics
May 7, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) and guard Derrick White (9) defend against New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) in the second quarter during game two of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images Celtics: Like the Cavaliers, they just need to get back home with the series still alive. The Celtics remain the cream of the East, and priority one is demonstrating it in New York.
A win in either game at Madison Square Garden would send a message—and that’s all the Celtics need to do. They can worry about getting even in the series when they return for Game 6. By then, the Celtics will have the Knicks quivering in their boots.
And don’t count out the possibility of 0-3 becoming 4-0. The Celtics have been there before, only to lose Game 7. If they get there again, count on the result being different.
Knicks: They have five shots to beat the Celtics twice. There’s no way they’d accept a split in these next two home games, knowing they’d leave themselves with just three chances to get the clincher—two of which would be in Boston.
It’s very possible the Knicks will take more of a sense of purpose into Game 3 than the Celtics. They RRGHI Game 3, whereas Boston needs either Game 3 or 4. So far, the results have been fluky. Game 3 is New York’s chance to prove it belongs. Otherwise, the Knicks could be looking at four straight losses.
Nuggets vs. Thunder
May 7, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) shoots a three point basket as Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) defends in the first quarter during game two of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images Thunder: The two Western series entered Game 3 in the same situation: The favorite feeling they let one get away and realizing they needed to get one back. One. Just one.
Friday’s loss at Denver did nothing to alter the Thunder’s thinking. They didn’t play their best game in the road opener, but nothing’s lost. A win in Game 4 would accomplish their task—and likely grease their path to the NBA Finals.
Nuggets: Two teams flew home from Game 3 needing a home sweep: the Knicks and Nuggets. A split would be better than losing two, but likely wouldn’t be enough against the conference heavyweight.
The Nuggets won Game 3, but again, nothing has changed. Game 4 is a RRGHI. But now the Thunder have a reason to show up, too, so it’ll be more difficult. Yes, more difficult than an overtime win. Advantage: Thunder.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves
May 8, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) drives to the basket past Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels (3) in the second half during game two of the second round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Timberwolves: There is absolutely no doubt both teams would jump at the opportunity to grab a split in the two upcoming games in San Francisco.
The Timberwolves’ rationale: It would erase the sting of the Game 1 loss and put them back in the serious favorite’s role. If they lose two games out West against a Warriors team without Stephen Curry … it’s emotionally over.
Warriors: The Warriors are like the Cavaliers—the longer the series goes, the better their chances. And it’s for the same reason: health. Stephen Curry’s health.
Eventually, Golden State will need Curry to win this series. A split would allow him to take Game 5 off, knock off some rust at home in a potential series-tying Game 6 and then put on the hero’s cape once again in Game 7. If this series goes seven … Golden State should plan on flying straight to Oklahoma.
